With oil at $140 per barrel, gasoline at $4 per gallon, it's just about too late to set into motion any transportation infrastructure fixes or new transit lines that will help Greater Copperfield 77095 endure What Is To Come, which is to say, $500 oil and $10 gasoline.
If Harris County decided today to build bike lanes, and if METRO decided today to put in new bus lines throughout 77095, how many years would it take to happen? At least five, I would imagine. But these agencies aren't even close to making those kinds of decisions. They haven't even asked the question.
I think after I publish and distribute "The Harris County Strategic Cycling Plan" with BikeHouston in July 2008 I am going to just STFU and let the chips fall where they may, and not worry about it. Just take care of my own personal matters.
By 2010 - 2015 we're going to have dead cars on the roadways with no gas in them, gas lines at gas stations and people fighting over what's left, people having to ride bikes in the roadways without the benefit of bike-specific design... all of that.
Some days I feel quite depressed. I feel like Sarah Connor in "Terminator 2"; aware that something frightful is going to happen, and utterly unable to get anyone to listen to her.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Even so, the suburbs still make sense... sort of
I live 20 miles from work. If I were to move inward, so I would be 5 miles from work, I would save 30 miles per day, 150 miles per week, 7200 miles per year.
But I'd be moving from Cy-Fair to Memorial-ish (I work in Westchase). I'd be assuming maybe $200,000 in new debt. My property taxes would double. My additional monthly out-of-pocket cashflow would be about about $1,180, or $14,160 per year. After tax deductions, let's say $10,200 per year.
Let's then ditch one car, the one that I drive least. Probably save $420 per month, on average. It's a cheap car.
Total net additional cash outflow $5,180 per year.
I would be paying $0.72 per mile to get rid of those commute miles, in other words. Moving in to get rid of commute miles would not be a good economic decision at this time.
It might, however, be a good decision to take if gas were about $9 per gallon, which would bring my car costs up to $0.72 per mile. If I were a solo car commuter.
But I commute only about 1/3 to 1/2 of my commute in the car, the rest being a combo of METRO bus and bicycle. So I do myself a huge favor and insulate my family from a big economic hit by turning the cranks.
In 2010-ish, I'm going to get an electric car from TH!NK, Nissan, or Mitsubishi which will cost about $4.56 at today's prices to charge up to go 125 miles, or 3.6 cents per mile. Let's say electricity quadruples by 2010. OK, $0.144 per mile. Still peanuts.
I just can't see a near-term scenario under which I should move closer in. And I've looked for one.
ALSO RISK! The $5180 per year spent on mortgage and property taxes is NOT going into 401-k, which means my wealth will concentrate in my house, rather than a diversified investment portfolio. Sorry, I'd rather have a liquid (sell it all with a phone call), diversified investment portfolio and live in a cardboard box beneath a freeway overpass than risk being underwater because the real estate market just tanked for whatever reason.
But I would certainly welcome better METRO service into the suburbs, certainly.
But I'd be moving from Cy-Fair to Memorial-ish (I work in Westchase). I'd be assuming maybe $200,000 in new debt. My property taxes would double. My additional monthly out-of-pocket cashflow would be about about $1,180, or $14,160 per year. After tax deductions, let's say $10,200 per year.
Let's then ditch one car, the one that I drive least. Probably save $420 per month, on average. It's a cheap car.
Total net additional cash outflow $5,180 per year.
I would be paying $0.72 per mile to get rid of those commute miles, in other words. Moving in to get rid of commute miles would not be a good economic decision at this time.
It might, however, be a good decision to take if gas were about $9 per gallon, which would bring my car costs up to $0.72 per mile. If I were a solo car commuter.
But I commute only about 1/3 to 1/2 of my commute in the car, the rest being a combo of METRO bus and bicycle. So I do myself a huge favor and insulate my family from a big economic hit by turning the cranks.
In 2010-ish, I'm going to get an electric car from TH!NK, Nissan, or Mitsubishi which will cost about $4.56 at today's prices to charge up to go 125 miles, or 3.6 cents per mile. Let's say electricity quadruples by 2010. OK, $0.144 per mile. Still peanuts.
I just can't see a near-term scenario under which I should move closer in. And I've looked for one.
ALSO RISK! The $5180 per year spent on mortgage and property taxes is NOT going into 401-k, which means my wealth will concentrate in my house, rather than a diversified investment portfolio. Sorry, I'd rather have a liquid (sell it all with a phone call), diversified investment portfolio and live in a cardboard box beneath a freeway overpass than risk being underwater because the real estate market just tanked for whatever reason.
But I would certainly welcome better METRO service into the suburbs, certainly.
Friday, June 13, 2008
Contingencies for the future
If I can't get gasoline, I'll ride my bike down to Westheimer and take the #82 METRO bus to and from work. State Highway 6 will be generally clear of car traffic, and any remaining car traffic is likely to be crawling at 30 - 35 MPH to save on fuel.
If even METRO can't get diesel, I'll have to ride my bike to/from work. 200 miles per week. That would not be nice. At that point, I think I'd drop some money on an electric bike, which could convert a 10 MPH pedaling effort into a 20 MPH speed, and get me home in about an hour; pretty good time, really. Two hours a day of easy pedaling would be fine with me.
A recumbent (electric or not) would be something to look into also. That could be a comfortable road commuter if I didn't need to or couldn't bring it onboard METRO. But a recumbent won't work if the roads get badly rutted... I'll need a mountain-bike type of bike.
If even METRO can't get diesel, I'll have to ride my bike to/from work. 200 miles per week. That would not be nice. At that point, I think I'd drop some money on an electric bike, which could convert a 10 MPH pedaling effort into a 20 MPH speed, and get me home in about an hour; pretty good time, really. Two hours a day of easy pedaling would be fine with me.
A recumbent (electric or not) would be something to look into also. That could be a comfortable road commuter if I didn't need to or couldn't bring it onboard METRO. But a recumbent won't work if the roads get badly rutted... I'll need a mountain-bike type of bike.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Friday, May 23, 2008
The shit hits the fan in 3 years
Chris Skrebowski on BBC News: 'We're in the foothills of peak oil', Radio 4 BBC
Broadcast on Radio 4 Thu 22 May - 17:00
Interview with Chris Skrebowski, editor of UK Petroleum Review
... Q: What do you say to the idea that some people have floated that part of the reason for the surging price in oil the fear ... that peak oil has been reached?
Skrebowski: I think that's an element in it. My own view is that this is not what we might call "pure peak oil." The peak we've reached at the moment is that we've in effect run out of [increased production of] the light, cheap and low-sulphur oil ... because the light oils make the maximum yield of the light products we want, they are the most desirable for refiners. ... The products we want - the diesel and the jet kerosene - are under great pressure and those are most easily made from the light crudes.
... This, if you like, is what I would describe as the "foothills of peak oil." This is the first peak that we've achieved. ... in light, low-sulphur crude.
The next peak will be when the producer countries' exports start falling. Because their growth rates are differentially much higher than those in the West.
So in effect they are pre-empting more and more of their own oil for their own use, so then we will get another upward kick to the price when that starts to come in.
Finally then we will get the peak oil where we simply cannot produce any more of any grade, any quality, anywhere. And that will give the final kick-up.
Q: When do you think kicks 2 and 3 will kick in?
Probably around 2011. It could get pushed out to 2013 if everything goes perfectly. ... in practical planning terms almost tomorrow.
Q: Do you think we have any idea? I mean the outcry over the price of oil right now is such that people are hurting, they're feeling it. Do you think we've got any idea about what might be around the corner?
The short answer, I think: no. I really think we're into a land without maps here. We don't have any real historical precedent for this. We don't quite understand how to deal with it or how to cope with it.
(22 May 2008)
Broadcast on Radio 4 Thu 22 May - 17:00
Interview with Chris Skrebowski, editor of UK Petroleum Review
... Q: What do you say to the idea that some people have floated that part of the reason for the surging price in oil the fear ... that peak oil has been reached?
Skrebowski: I think that's an element in it. My own view is that this is not what we might call "pure peak oil." The peak we've reached at the moment is that we've in effect run out of [increased production of] the light, cheap and low-sulphur oil ... because the light oils make the maximum yield of the light products we want, they are the most desirable for refiners. ... The products we want - the diesel and the jet kerosene - are under great pressure and those are most easily made from the light crudes.
... This, if you like, is what I would describe as the "foothills of peak oil." This is the first peak that we've achieved. ... in light, low-sulphur crude.
The next peak will be when the producer countries' exports start falling. Because their growth rates are differentially much higher than those in the West.
So in effect they are pre-empting more and more of their own oil for their own use, so then we will get another upward kick to the price when that starts to come in.
Finally then we will get the peak oil where we simply cannot produce any more of any grade, any quality, anywhere. And that will give the final kick-up.
Q: When do you think kicks 2 and 3 will kick in?
Probably around 2011. It could get pushed out to 2013 if everything goes perfectly. ... in practical planning terms almost tomorrow.
Q: Do you think we have any idea? I mean the outcry over the price of oil right now is such that people are hurting, they're feeling it. Do you think we've got any idea about what might be around the corner?
The short answer, I think: no. I really think we're into a land without maps here. We don't have any real historical precedent for this. We don't quite understand how to deal with it or how to cope with it.
(22 May 2008)
Monday, April 14, 2008
My op-ed, Houston Chronicle, April 13, 2008
ROAD WORRIERS
Fight back, Houston, and let's carpool
Single-occupancy vehicles are our enemy
By PETER WANG
Oil over $100 per barrel, with a new opinion from Goldman Sachs that it could spike up to $200
Household budgets stretched; home foreclosures on the rise, even in the Energy Capital of the world. Families amassing credit-card debt in order to pay for fuel. Hard decisions get made every day: Do we buy gasoline, food or prescription drugs?
The Houston region has a serious air pollution problem, in terms of both ground-level ozone and greenhouse gases. There is unbearable congestion all over the region.
You would think people would use any tool at their disposal in order to cope. But if you look around at the cars stopped on any Houston area roadway, you will see the vast majority of them still carry only one occupant: the driver.
The prevalence of single-occupant vehicles, or SOVs, magnifies all of the problems listed above. Conversely, carpooling mitigates all of these problems. Think about it: Take Hummer H2 that gets 12 miles per gallon and carry four people to work in it instead of one. It magically yields 48-mpg per passenger, which is the same as a single-occupant hybrid Toyota Prius. But even better: One loaded H2 takes up less road space than four Priuses, and it is safer as well.
So why doesn't everyone with a regular schedule and a fixed work location take advantage of carpooling? I believe the most influential reasons are sociological and psychological.
Americans — and particularly Texans — believe in the myth of the cowboy. Strong, tough and self-reliant, the cowboy rides alone into the sunset.
This is not, however, a principle upon which to base an efficient transportation system. We have to push the cowboy out of the driver's seat.
Neighbors need to learn how to trust and depend on each other for mutual aid and benefit (which was more likely the reality on the Texas frontier, anyway).
Thanks to the Internet, there are easy and secure ways for neighbors who commute to the same places to get connected. NuRide.com is endorsed by Harris County Judge Ed Emmett and Houston Mayor Bill White. The Metropolitan Transit Authority has a ridesharing database, RideMetro.org/RidePro.
There are legitimate security concerns about riding with strangers at the beginning, but these are easily dealt with. Arrange a pre-carpool meeting in a crowded public place like a coffee shop so you can get a sense of who you are dealing with in safety. There is no harm in asking prospective carpoolers for personal references.
Getting stranded at work when there's an emergency is another problem. This is where employers can step in with a valuable fringe benefit — emergency cab fare home a few times per year. Even if this is not possible, there is such an abundance of savings in carpooling that the occasional cab ride home can be easily absorbed.
Let's put some numbers on that abundance of savings. A commuter with a 20-mpg car, $3.10 gasoline, 25-cents-per-mile depreciation, 7- cents-per-mile maintenance, a 40-mile round-trip, and $5 in tolls will save $16 per day if he/she takes turns driving with two other people, or $4,000 per year. Even a cowboy could learn to like those numbers.
Wang is a Texas registered professional geoscientist employed in oilfield services. He is a board member of the Citizens' Transportation Coalition and carpools, bicycles and uses Metro for his commutes.
Fight back, Houston, and let's carpool
Single-occupancy vehicles are our enemy
By PETER WANG
Oil over $100 per barrel, with a new opinion from Goldman Sachs that it could spike up to $200
Household budgets stretched; home foreclosures on the rise, even in the Energy Capital of the world. Families amassing credit-card debt in order to pay for fuel. Hard decisions get made every day: Do we buy gasoline, food or prescription drugs?
The Houston region has a serious air pollution problem, in terms of both ground-level ozone and greenhouse gases. There is unbearable congestion all over the region.
You would think people would use any tool at their disposal in order to cope. But if you look around at the cars stopped on any Houston area roadway, you will see the vast majority of them still carry only one occupant: the driver.
The prevalence of single-occupant vehicles, or SOVs, magnifies all of the problems listed above. Conversely, carpooling mitigates all of these problems. Think about it: Take Hummer H2 that gets 12 miles per gallon and carry four people to work in it instead of one. It magically yields 48-mpg per passenger, which is the same as a single-occupant hybrid Toyota Prius. But even better: One loaded H2 takes up less road space than four Priuses, and it is safer as well.
So why doesn't everyone with a regular schedule and a fixed work location take advantage of carpooling? I believe the most influential reasons are sociological and psychological.
Americans — and particularly Texans — believe in the myth of the cowboy. Strong, tough and self-reliant, the cowboy rides alone into the sunset.
This is not, however, a principle upon which to base an efficient transportation system. We have to push the cowboy out of the driver's seat.
Neighbors need to learn how to trust and depend on each other for mutual aid and benefit (which was more likely the reality on the Texas frontier, anyway).
Thanks to the Internet, there are easy and secure ways for neighbors who commute to the same places to get connected. NuRide.com is endorsed by Harris County Judge Ed Emmett and Houston Mayor Bill White. The Metropolitan Transit Authority has a ridesharing database, RideMetro.org/RidePro.
There are legitimate security concerns about riding with strangers at the beginning, but these are easily dealt with. Arrange a pre-carpool meeting in a crowded public place like a coffee shop so you can get a sense of who you are dealing with in safety. There is no harm in asking prospective carpoolers for personal references.
Getting stranded at work when there's an emergency is another problem. This is where employers can step in with a valuable fringe benefit — emergency cab fare home a few times per year. Even if this is not possible, there is such an abundance of savings in carpooling that the occasional cab ride home can be easily absorbed.
Let's put some numbers on that abundance of savings. A commuter with a 20-mpg car, $3.10 gasoline, 25-cents-per-mile depreciation, 7- cents-per-mile maintenance, a 40-mile round-trip, and $5 in tolls will save $16 per day if he/she takes turns driving with two other people, or $4,000 per year. Even a cowboy could learn to like those numbers.
Wang is a Texas registered professional geoscientist employed in oilfield services. He is a board member of the Citizens' Transportation Coalition and carpools, bicycles and uses Metro for his commutes.
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Save Camp Allen!
Camp Allen located in Grimes County is in the target area of TxDot's I-69 Corridor. If this 1200 foot wide tollway is built, it would destroy the 1100 acre Conference and Retreat Center that is visited by 42,000 people per year. Children have been coming to Camp Allen for summer camp since 1921. Over 6,000 children per year come to the facility each year for outdoor education and ecological studies. Any type of freeway would diminish the ability to have outdoor classrooms or to hold retreats from the city. We want the I-69 corridor plan stopped from harming Camp Allen.
Public comments due before March 19:
http://ttc.keeptexasmoving.com/comments_questions/comments_i69.aspx
Sign the petition at Camp Allen's website:
http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/savecamp/
Public comments due before March 19:
http://ttc.keeptexasmoving.com
Sign the petition at Camp Allen's website:
http://www.ipetitions.com
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